AI preview and result

Published: 4 October 2026 at 19:54 UTC · 145 h before kick-off

What the pre-match AI preview said

Penarol appears close to victory against Progreso at home, but the match is likely to be low-scoring. Key predictions are Home Team Goals Under 2.5 (69%), Match Result Home Win (69%), HT Total Goals Under 1.5 (67%), and Total Goals Under 3.5 (65%).

How the pre-match analyses turned out

Home team goals: Under 2.5 (confidence 69%)Actual: 1Correct
Match result: Penarol to win (confidence 69%)Actual: 1-1Incorrect
1st-half total goals: Under 1.5 (confidence 67%)Actual: 1Correct
Total goals: Under 3.5 (confidence 65%)Actual: 2Correct

3 of 4 pre-match analyses were correct. Public accuracy record of all AI analyses

Match events

5'SubstitutionIn: H. Carroso · Out: M. Saravia (Progreso)
26'GoalN. Lopez (Progreso)
46'SubstitutionIn: A. Hernandez · Out: N. Fernandez (Penarol)
46'SubstitutionIn: I. Alegre · Out: N. Herrera (Penarol)
58'Yellow cardC. Jaime (Penarol)
61'SubstitutionIn: E. Darias · Out: L. Umpierrez (Penarol)
70'SubstitutionIn: G. Silva · Out: A. Cougo (Progreso)
70'SubstitutionIn: M. Copelotti · Out: M. Juambeltz (Progreso)
71'SubstitutionIn: Lucas Hernandez · Out: T. N. Espinosa Dovat (Penarol)
76'Yellow cardE. Darias (Penarol)
78'SubstitutionIn: F. Gonzalez · Out: C. Jaime (Penarol)
83'SubstitutionIn: S. Bruschi · Out: A. Ocampo (Progreso)
83'SubstitutionIn: A. Codagnone · Out: F. De Leon (Progreso)
90+2'GoalA. Hernandez (Penarol)

Team statistics

Full match

	Penarol	Progreso
Ball possession	61%	39%
Total shots	22	10
Shots on target	6	6
Corners	4	2
Yellow cards	2	0

Lineups

PenarolFormation: 3-4-2-1

Starting XI

29W. Aguerre
6L. Ferreira
2G. Pezzella
34N. Herrera
7J. Cabrera
5E. Remedi
8N. Fernandez
26T. N. Espinosa Dovat
11C. Jaime
32L. Umpierrez
19M. Arezo

Substitution

46'In: I. Alegre · Out: N. Herrera
46'In: A. Hernandez · Out: N. Fernandez
61'In: E. Darias · Out: L. Umpierrez
71'In: Lucas Hernandez · Out: T. N. Espinosa Dovat
78'In: F. Gonzalez · Out: C. Jaime

Substitutes

1S. Britos
3M. Lemos
21Jesus Trindade
9F. Batista
33J. Rodriguez

ProgresoFormation: 4-2-3-1

Starting XI

1R. Bacchia
24E. Alvarez
15M. Martin
6M. Saravia
40A. Cougo
5A. Pinheiro
25R. Cristobal
17F. De Leon
10N. Lopez
7A. Ocampo
8M. Juambeltz

Substitution

5'In: H. Carroso · Out: M. Saravia
70'In: G. Silva · Out: A. Cougo
70'In: M. Copelotti · Out: M. Juambeltz
83'In: S. Bruschi · Out: A. Ocampo
83'In: A. Codagnone · Out: F. De Leon

Substitutes

12L. Fernandez
18G. Silva
2S. Cardozo Coitinho
26J. Pablo Oliva
20G. Silva

Key moments from the commentary

0'Kick-off. Referee: M. De Armas.
26'N. López scores. Progreso take the lead: 0-1.
45+2'Half-time: Penarol 0-1 Progreso. Shots 10-6, on target 3-4. Possession 57%–43%.
46'The second half is under way.
90+2'A. Hernández scores. Penarol equalise: 1-1.
90+2'Full-time: Penarol 1-1 Progreso. Shots 22-10, on target 6-6. Possession 61%–39%.

Last 5 matches

Penarol

W1-0vs Racing Montevideo4 Oct 2026
D1-1vs Montevideo City30 Sept 2026
W2-1vs Boston River26 Sept 2026
D1-1vs Danubio24 Sept 2026
W2-1vs CA Cerro19 Sept 2026

Progreso

L2-3vs Liverpool M.3 Oct 2026
W2-1vs Racing Montevideo26 Sept 2026
W2-1vs Boston River19 Sept 2026
L0-1vs Nacional16 Sept 2026
L1-3vs CA Cerro13 Sept 2026

Pos

Pts

Nacional

Maldonado

Penarol

Racing Montevideo

Progreso

Juventud

CA Cerro

–

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